The Elements of a Successful Carnival Game (I)

Copyright © Eliot Jacobson, Ph.D.

The Global Gaming Expo (G2E) takes place each fall at the Las Vegas Convention Center . This exposition is the gauntlet through which most new table games pass on their way towards an uncertain future. Many of these games are produced by individual inventors with little experience in the industry.

On the other side, casinos and Table Game Directors are inundated with new games. The line of developers with “great new ideas” stretches out the door, around the corner and down the block. Each developer has a long list of reasons his game is the best new idea since Three Card Poker; the big “if” is getting to the front of the line.

Michael Shackleford (the “Wizard of Odds”) puts it this way: “The perception of those new to the business is that casino management will fall all over themselves trying to get your game into their casino. What is closer to reality is that game inventors fall all over themselves trying to get their games into a casino.”

When the developer finally gets his moment, he often misses the most important point. The developer presents his game in terms of how much money it will make for the casino – it’s an absolute number. The casino’s view is relative: the new game has to make more than the worst performing game already on the floor.

All is not lost for the developer. Established casinos are looking for new games all the time. Players want both variety and contemporary themes. There are emerging markets where casinos are looking for that special game that gives them a competitive advantage. There is an unprecedented need for new table games in the market.

These new table games are often called "carnival games." These games are not for the serious player -- the backbone of traditional table games consists of blackjack, roulette, baccarat and craps. The new breed of games include names like Three Card Poker, Caribbean Stud, Spanish 21, Super Fun 21, Ultimate Texas Hold'Em, and many many more. The new game developer hopes to compete in this market against formidable companies such as Shuffle Master.

There are some basic principles that guide carnival game development. These principles are also a guide to casino management in choosing new carnival games. As game designs and ideas flood the market, a mutual understanding of the basic parameters for successful new games becomes critical.

Here are ten principles for game design, development and selection:

1) The idea of a new table game should be explainable to a person of average intelligence in less than a minute. It is much easier for the patron to walk past a new game than to have the game explained. There is a basic lack of trust when a player sees a new game, establishing that trust is the most difficult part of bringing a new game to market. Simplicity is one of the keys. The prospective player will pass if the game idea, rules, and strategy are not intuitive. The bulk of the demographic for these games are those players who are looking for something more than slots but are not up to the task of mastering blackjack strategy or the daunting craps layout. Remember to KEEP IT SIMPLE.

2) There should be at most one side bet. Many inventors create a basic game idea then over-populate their layout with several side bets. Their idea is that if the main game isn’t attractive, then maybe the player will find some other reason to play. Those games offering multiple wagering options have not seen much success. Remember, you can always add a feature to an established game, but a game with too much on the layout may never see the day when something can be taken away.

3) The layout should be simple and ergonomic. The developer should always be thinking about what they can remove from their layout and still express the idea of the game. The layout should use positive and power words (win, bonus, fortune, lucky, etc.). When naming elements of the game, numbers and negative terminology should be avoided. As an example of the power of words we turn to Blackjack: “everyone knows” you should not take “insurance.” After all, "insurance" is only needed in anticipation of a bad outcome. If you take it, then you are expecting the worst -- what gambler wants that? On the other hand, “everyone knows” you should take “Even Money” -- it's money in the bank, guaranteed income. The ironic secret is that these two are the same when the player holds a blackjack: even money = insurance.

4) The game should have a house edge consistent with the edge for other games in its category. For the main game of a new carnival game, the edge should be between 2% and 6%. For the side bet (if any) the edge should be variable and easily adjusted by the house to meet their needs. The one sure way for a game to fail is to have new players sit down and lose quickly. A game that has rare large payouts is less likely to succeed than a game that has more frequent but smaller payouts. Successful games often integrate both the big rare payout with the small frequent payout by building a side bet that offers the former with a main game that offers the latter. Your game should not be "strategically neutral" -- that is, the player should have some ability to make a decision at some point in the game. These decisions go by names like raise, stand, fold, double, split, hit, surrender, press, and so on. Only side-bets can be designed to be strategically neutral; the main game must have at least one instance of strategic decision making, however trivial, for the player. For example, on the Ante/Play wager in Three Card Poker the player should play Q-6-4 or higher and fold all lesser hands. That's a decision point; it may be a trivial decision, but it is the key to the success of Three Card Poker. On the other hand, the "Pair Plus" side bet in Three Card Poker has no decision point.

5) The name of the game and the actual play of the game should involve an idea that has popular interest in the culture. For example, “Pete’s Poker” is much more likely to be successful than “ Chad ’s Chess.” Also, make sure no extra words are in the name: "Alabama Poker" is preferred to "Alabama Style Poker". Even if it is a stretch, replace the word "Poker" with a specific game, as in "Alabama Hold 'Em" or "Alabama Stud." The name has to be compelling to the player. It has to give the feeling that the game has been around a long time, even if it is new. On the other hand, use some common sense. For example, "WhoopAss Poker" is an existing game (Google it), but I know casinos that won't take it because of its name. Also, variations of existing names are a good choice: "EZ Pai Gow" and "Three Card Blackjack" are compelling names. The name is just about as important as the rest of the game put together -- you are creating a brand.

6) The game should be easy for the staff, management, dealers and casino security to learn. The rules and layout should be designed to minimize dealer errors and training time. Ultimately it is the dealer who will sell your game, so make sure the game is designed for the dealers! They don't want to learn new games and don't want to deal them. It's up to you to change their mind about your game. The documentation of the game should be as simple, clear and attractive as possible. Get rid of every extra word, dash, number, color, logo, line, or dot. Reread and reconsider until there is not an extra anything anywhere on the layout, the rules, the signage, or any other part of the game. Just as with side bets, you can always add something later if it becomes clear that it is essential, but you will not have the opportunity to take anything away if your game fails. I am reminded of the way cement paths are best created across grassy meadows -- wait for the grass to be trampled into the natural human pathways and only then create the path.

7) The game should not involve new physical elements. The established elements of cards and dice are enough. Some established games use tiles (Pai Gow or Mahjong). New devices require new security and training and are universally enough to doom the idea. I disagree with the comment of Ed Rogich from IGT (International Game Technology) who said: "There is only so much you can do with 52 cards." One could similarly argue that there is only so much you can do with the 100+ chemical elements of the periodic table. Human ingenuity and creativity are boundless, but one boundary is fixed: do not create a new gaming device.

8) In the last four years I have personally seen over 50 Hold ‘Em poker type games presented at G2E. This indicates the need in the market for poker games, but also that there is a lot of competition. Anyone developing a carnival game needs to know the full range of games offered in his area of development. Do your research! I would like to argue that blackjack and poker don't mix, but the game "21 + 3" is a clear example of a successful marriage of the two. Nevertheless, be very cautious that the area of your development is popular in current culture, and that any mixture of ideas is carefully thought out.

9) Both the casino and the game designer must keep in mind that there are individuals dedicated to finding legal ways to exploit defects in the procedure or design of a game for profit. The game must be bullet tested against advantage play. This is much tougher than might first appear. The ingenuity of those who want to defeat new games far exceeds the skill of most designers or casino personnel to detect these flaws. Be especially careful in games that are susceptible to a card counting strategy. Card counting is legal and the individuals who beat your game this way are neither cheaters nor crooks. They are mostly decent and smart people and what they are doing is legal. Expect a careful review of your game by advantage players. You've just got to be smarter.

10) Don't try and make your money back right away. You may have to offer your game for free. You may have to baby sit your game a lot to generate player interest. You may have to develop the player base all by yourself, one player at a time. It's hard work and costs a lot more than you can imagine. A typical game may cost $50,000 or more to bring to market, with no guarantee of success. Most games are leased on a monthly per-table basis. The top players in the carnival game market are raising their prices on their best games. Casinos pay as much as $2500 per month of a single table of some highly popular games. Developers should offer and casinos should expect a great deal on a new game. The lucky developer may get rich on the new game, but not quickly. It costs a small fortune to make a big fortune.

As a game analyst and consultant, I am often presented with ideas that go against one or more of the principles given above. Many game developers stubbornly hold on to their ideas. Success requires a great idea, a solid understanding of what works, and the ability to be flexible. If developers consider these points in their creative process and management considers these points in their game selection process, there may be considerably less pain for both sides.